First Warn 5 team predicts summer season forecast - WNEM TV 5

First Warn 5 team predicts summer season forecast

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MID-MICHIGAN (WNEM) -

Spring has arrived in Mid-Michigan and that means summer isn't far behind.

The I-Team asked Chief Meteorologist Bryan Bachman and the rest of the First Warn 5 team to begin crunching the numbers.

"A lot of times in an El Nino winter you'll see some of the similar effects carry over into summer. So that's what we're going to look at today. We're going to look at exactly how much of an impact that's going to have on what we're expecting for temperatures this summer. Above average, below average, and what we think that might do in terms of our chances for any potential severe weather," Bachman said.

One big factor in our weather over the next three months is a change in the global pattern. The warm El Nino that dominated the region over the winter is weakening. It will soon be replaced by a cooler La Nina, the opposite of El Nino.

"We're in the mist of transitioning from an El Nino into a La Nina, but that takes a lot of time. So it doesn't mean tomorrow you're going to get cold weather out of that and typically during that transition you typically get warmer weather," Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren said.

Meteorologist Claire Cameron said history is on your side if you want to see the mercury climb. She took a look at other similar summers when there was a transition from El Nino to La Nina.

"Last year in 2015 we saw two days where we reached 90 degrees and above. We saw in 1998, at MBS we saw 14 days that were 90 degrees or above. And in Flint that same number, 14. In 1995 we saw 11. The best year was 1988. We saw 35 days where we had 90 degrees or above. And in Flint it was 31 days with 90 degree temperatures or above," Cameron said.

Arbela Township in Tuscola County was struck by an EF2 tornado last summer. As Cameron said, all that warm air could lead to more severe weather this summer.

"I did look at the tornado statistics just to get an idea of what we've seen in the past and Michigan averages 16 tornadoes per year," Meteorologist Chris Easlick said.

Easlick said there's a chance the Great Lakes State could beat that average this year, thanks to the El Nino/La Nina switch over.

"Since 1973 we've gone through this transition four times - 1973, 1988, 1995 and 1998. For three out of four of those years we saw above average tornadoes. We saw greater than 16," Easlick said.

Bachman said this summer could be warmer than usual.

"It looks like the odds are there for an above average summer, especially when you compare it to past El Nino summers," Bachman said. "Just keep in mind too, with warmer weather also increases the potential for more thunderstorms."

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