Wind & cold arrive in Mid-Michigan - WNEM TV 5

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Wind & cold arrive in Mid-Michigan

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A few rain showers moved through parts of the Thumb last evening, but as of this morning, those showers are now well removed from the region. While we're chilly this morning, we're staying dry and expect that throughout your Wednesday.

Today & Tonight

Like the last few days, skies will be mostly cloudy throughout your Wednesday. Although we're staying dry throughout today, our first round of cold air has moved in, keeping high temperatures around the lower 30s this afternoon.

Although temperatures will be in the 30s today, a brisk westerly wind will likely keep our wind chills in the 20s throughout the day, so make sure you're dressed warmly.

Skies will be mostly cloudy through the overnight and most will stay dry, but a few lake-effect snow showers may develop after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the 20s once again.

Thursday & Friday

Thursday and Friday will be very similar days to end the week. Both days will feature a chance for lake-effect snow showers. While everyone stands a chance for lake-effect snow showers, the best chances are in our western areas, closest to Lake Michigan.

Accumulations through Friday night are expected to be below an inch for most of Mid-Michigan. Our best chances for higher accumulations will be in those western areas, near US-127.

High temperatures on Thursday and Friday, will struggle to reach the 30 degree mark, if they even make it out of the 20s. Wind chills both days will much cooler than the actual temperature.

Chance For Snow Sunday

We're expecting Saturday to be dry to start your weekend, with the main weather story that day being our continued cold temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s area wide.

It looks like that will be a short stay of dry weather as our next system moves through on Sunday. Ahead of that system, we should warm up out of the 20s into the 30s, but we'll still be right around freezing. This storm system looks like our next best chance for accumulating snow.

While the chance for accumulating snow is reasonable, it's far too early to talk about snowfall totals. Why?

Well that specific system still has not made landfall in the United States. This means our weather models have not been able to sample actual upper-air observations from the weather balloons we launch here in the US.

This means those models are not getting a proper sampling of that system, and the final solutions have been very inconsistent the last few days.

For a comparison, think of our models like a Plinko Board on the Price is Right. Our models are like contestants, they know where the chip starts. They're usually very accurate with current conditions.

But as you drop the Plinko Chip, the result can be a variety of different dollar amounts at the bottom of the board. In the case of weather models, those dollar amounts are essentially the projected weather conditions for any one spot.

Once we get closer to the event, the models zero in on a solution, essentially take a few rows out of the bottom of the Plinko board, leading to more realistic and more specific solutions.

Bottom line, the amount of snow we can expect will become more clear as we go toward Friday, when the system finally makes landfall in the United States.

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