Close call for fireworks tonight, best chance for rain overnight

Meteorologist Chris Easlick has your First Warn 5 forecast.
Published: Jul. 4, 2022 at 6:04 PM EDT
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SAGINAW, Mich. (WNEM) - Of course we’ve had such a beautiful stretch of weather lately, and the night we would love for it to be dry, we’re keeping an eye on some incoming showers.

However, it appears that we’ll still have a window for many of the fireworks shows tonight, as dry air from earlier today will do its best to fight back against those incoming showers and hold them off for a bit. In better news, we’ll have a better chance for rain overnight into early Tuesday, which should allow us to get some of the fireworks in tonight, and receive some beneficial rain overnight.

This Evening & Overnight

Showers and storms currently over Lake Michigan are weakening as they move to the east, and we’ll keep an eye on their progress through the night. With all of the leftover dry air from the sunny start to our day, even if these showers move overhead on radar, they may struggle to actually reach the ground or remain very light.

You can track the rain with our Interactive Radar through the night, but just know that it’s one of those nights where showers may be overhead, but may not be reaching the surface everywhere.

Temperatures this evening will remain very mild with the clouds moving overhead, and overnight lows won’t fall very far. Expect overnight lows to settle in the middle 60s to low 70s.

Showers and storms are expected to move in late tonight.
Showers and storms are expected to move in late tonight.(WNEM)

Luckily, as an area of low pressure to our west moves over the region later tonight, our shower and thunderstorm chances should increase and many areas should pick up some measurable rain, which is good news because we sure could use it.

The best chance for severe weather is expected to be to our south tonight. However, we'll keep...
The best chance for severe weather is expected to be to our south tonight. However, we'll keep an eye on things as always overnight.(WNEM)

The Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather in place over the TV5 viewing area tonight, however the better chance should remain to our southwest and our threat for severe weather is very low. If a storm manages to get strong enough, which most of them won’t, damaging wind and hail would be our concern. Overnight into Tuesday morning would be our main threat window.

Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms should be primarily a morning things around Mid-Michigan, with dry weather expected to take over by lunch time. Skies should break up a bit after the morning hours as well, and we should have at least some partial sunshine to end the day.

Rainfall amounts will vary, but many will have a chance to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.75″ tonight and early Tuesday. The hardest hit areas could reach around 1″.

Another hot day is expected tomorrow, and we'll see the humidity ramp up Tuesday as well.
Another hot day is expected tomorrow, and we'll see the humidity ramp up Tuesday as well.(WNEM)

Highs should have a chance to jump back into the middle and upper 80s for our warmest locations. Humidity levels will be taking a jump as well, with dew points going back into the upper 60s and low 70s, which could make it feel more like the 90s.

As the cold front drops through the area into the afternoon and evening, we’ll have to keep an eye on any redevelopment that might occur with the heating of the day, however that threat appears better to our south, so we’ll keep it out of the forecast for now.

If anyone needs to keep an eye on chances during the second half of the day, it would be our southern row of counties and areas south of there (Genesee, Lapeer, Shiawassee).