Slightly warmer Sunday, showers and storms possible Monday

Meteorologist Mathieu Mondro has the latest First Warn 5 forecast!
Published: Jul. 31, 2022 at 8:20 AM EDT
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SAGINAW, Mich. (WNEM) - After a beautiful Saturday, more nice weather continues Sunday. We really couldn’t have much better weather to close out the month of July (it’s nearly August -- wow!). The only difference today compared to Saturday are temperatures, which will be a handful of degrees warmer. We’re still currently on track for a cold front to move through Monday, and although there is a severe weather chance, it’s still at the lower end.


Skies are mostly clear with only a handful of clouds moving in from the south this morning. Overall, sky conditions will be a repeat of Saturday with fair weather clouds from time to time, but no rain is expected out of those clouds. Highs today will be anywhere from three to five degrees warmer, which puts many locations up to around 87 degrees. Humidity stays in check with dew points only reaching up to around 60 degrees today. Our southwesterly wind will speed up to 5 to 15 mph, with a few gusts occasionally to 20 mph.

Sunday will be hotter than Saturday.
Sunday will be hotter than Saturday.(WNEM)


We lose the fair weather clouds when we lose the heating of the day this evening, leading to mostly clear skies starting off. We should remain mostly clear through much of the overnight, then Monday’s cold front starts knocking on our door by Monday morning. Lows will fall to around 64 degrees tonight, and the southwest wind will fall back to around 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday night sees milder low temperatures.
Sunday night sees milder low temperatures.(WNEM)


There has still been some split to when some of the first showers could arrive Monday, but currently, some look possible mid-to-late morning along our western tier. Rain development along the front is still expected during the afternoon, but it’s the strength of that rain development that is in question. It will depend on a few factors, mainly: 1) how long showers persist in the morning; and 2) how quickly clouds clear out heading into the afternoon. To help sustain any chance for severe storms, we’ll need rain and clouds to end quickly to allow for more storm fuel to regenerate. With trends heading towards a few more showers in the morning, that would lean towards a lowered severe weather risk. The Storm Prediction Center concurs and has shifted the are a of marginal risk farther to the east. As always, we’ll still monitor this heading into Monday as the chance for severe weather is non-zero.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible farther east on Monday.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible farther east on Monday.(WNEM)

The breeze will pick up with the front passing through, wind gusts will reach up to around 30 mph. The wind direction will initially be southwest, then shifting westerly behind the front. Sustained winds will be from 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Sunday with highs up to around 84 degrees.

Late-Week Warmth

Wednesday is still on track to be the hottest day of the week with highs around 93 to 94 degrees, but there are some updates regarding temperatures Thursday and Friday. Those temperatures have been trending cooler due to a cold front. That front looks to pass through Wednesday night bringing more rain chances to our area as well. The cold front looks like it will have just enough strength to break the heat from Wednesday. If this front happens to slow back down, or we don’t see as strong of a disturbance move through the middle-levels of the atmosphere, then the heat may be able to build back in for Thursday and Friday. We’re keeping tabs on it, but still prepare for the heat on Wednesday!

See how rain chances fare through the whole week in your full 7-Day Forecast!