Quiet Tuesday, strong storms possible Wednesday

Meteorologist Chris Easlick has your forecast.
Published: Aug. 2, 2022 at 7:01 PM EDT
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SAGINAW, Mich. (WNEM) - After some heavy rain and severe weather in parts of the area on Monday, today has been a nice change of pace, with plenty of sun and pleasant temperatures.

This break will be fairly short-lived however, with our next chance of rain coming in on Wednesday and another possibility of strong to severe storms. Before we get there, you should have no weather issues for any outdoor plans this evening!

This Evening & Overnight

Sunny skies will continue around the area this evening, and clear to partly cloudy skies will stick around most of the overnight. Some more clouds will likely filter in closer to daybreak tomorrow, and there’s a chance of a few thunderstorms as well, though not for everyone. The best chance for this will be north of the Tri-Cities.

Despite the clear to partly cloudy skies early, we don’t expect to cool down too much, with a southeasterly wind picking up through the night and a gradual increase in humidity. Lows are expected to settle in the middle 60s for most of the region.

Wednesday

The progress of any showers and thunderstorms from Wisconsin and the U.P. will need to be monitored as they try to push into the region tomorrow morning. We do not expect these storms to be severe, though they could have implications on our forecast during the afternoon and evening.

If these showers and storms, and their associated cloud cover, manage to stick around most of the day, we won’t heat up quite as much, and won’t have as much available energy for severe weather during the afternoon and evening. This may not wipe away the threat completely, but could diminish it quite a bit.

On the other side of the coin, if these clouds, showers, and storms move out quickly and don’t linger, or avoid the area entirely, our chances for severe weather will be a bit stronger for the afternoon and evening hours.

We’ll have plenty of heat and humidity to work with, with highs pushing into the lower and middle 90s. With dew points expected to rise well into the 60s and even 70s, we’ll feel much warmer than our actual temperatures read. If we heat up with the sun, we could feel like the upper 90s to near 100. Southwesterly winds will help pump in that heat, around 10 to 20 miles per hour sustained, with gusts near 30 miles per hour.

We have a chance for severe storms on Wednesday.
We have a chance for severe storms on Wednesday.(WNEM)

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has us under a Slight Risk (scattered severe storms expected) tomorrow. The time frame we’re concerned with would be from 12 PM to 10 PM. As we get better information in the morning, we may be able to tighten that time frame up a bit.

If severe storms develop and clouds and showers don’t ruin our chances, damaging winds and heavy rain would be the main threats with any strong storms. However, we also can’t rule out hail, or an isolated tornado. The best chance for a tornado would occur toward the beginning of the event, with any storms that develop on their own before joining a line of storms. It’s worth noting the tornado threat is low and not the primary concern.

Storms could still linger overnight, but become more scattered into Thursday. Any storms overnight should remain below severe limits. Lows will remain mild and muggy, with plenty of 60s and low 70s.