Storm chances this evening into Wednesday, cooler Thursday

Published: Sep. 20, 2022 at 5:07 AM EDT|Updated: Sep. 20, 2022 at 2:53 PM EDT
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Meteorologist John Gross has your First Warn 5 Forecast.

SAGINAW, Mich. (WNEM) - We’re tracking the chance for some showers and a small chance for a few isolated strong thunderstorms over the next 24 hours.

Past any rain chances mid-week, the attention will turn to much cooler temperatures; just in time for the first day of fall!

Here’s the latest forecast!

Today (Tuesday)

After a few showers and t-storms from the late morning, the second chance comes in closer to dinnertime; this will be ahead of a warm front. That is the timeframe that sees thunderstorms popping up as we have more heat built up, and where our marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is.

This timeframe lies from around 5 PM to midnight, with hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain being the primary impacts out of any strong storms. Winds between 50 to 60 mph are also possible.

Check in to the Weather Alerts section of our website for the latest alert information if any warnings are issued.

Tuesday near dinnertime storms are possible.  These do have a marginal risk for severe weather.
Tuesday near dinnertime storms are possible. These do have a marginal risk for severe weather.(WNEM)

Speaking of the heat, highs today will reach right around 80. The air will feel similar to Monday: warm, but not overly humid.

Today’s wind will sustain from the south southwest at 5-15 mph.

Tuesday will reach right around 80 degrees for many.
Tuesday will reach right around 80 degrees for many.(WNEM)

Evening & Tonight

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will still exists tonight after the warm front moves through, but ahead of the strong cold front. The best chance is for our eastern communities.

Lows will be milder as a result of the warm front having passed, dropping only into the mid 60s. Expect the south southwest wind to continue around 5-15 mph.

Wednesday

The cold front for Wednesday has been speeding up in its arrival in our data. It’s looking like passage will land between mid morning to late morning. With the passage speeding up, severe chances have been shifting eastward.

This is as the timing of the cold front now lies at an unfavorable time of day (from a storm standpoint), but favorable for us as the severe chance is lowered! But, still stay weather aware Wednesday morning, and know that any storms that do reach the severe level could feature damaging winds near 60 mph, hail, and heavy rain.

The best timing for any strong storms in our area Wednesday will be in the morning.

The timing of the cold front Wednesday morning is not favorable for widespread severe weather,...
The timing of the cold front Wednesday morning is not favorable for widespread severe weather, but some stronger storms are still possible.(WNEM)

High temperatures take quite a split as a result of the passing strong cold front. Houghton Lake, Rose City, West Branch, will only reach into the lower 70s. However, the Tri-Cities will be closer to 80 degrees and Flint could reach near the low 80s.

Winds turn more NW behind the passing cold front; speeds will be between 10-15 mph with gusts near 25 mph.

Wednesday will have a large temperature split due to the cold front.
Wednesday will have a large temperature split due to the cold front.(WNEM)

After the cold front moves through, conditions may actually stay dry through a majority of the afternoon hours, before lake-effect rain showers and drizzle move in during the evening and overnight.

Thursday also hold the chance for lake-effect showers and drizzle with a significantly cooler day, too. Highs for many in the 50s, struggling to reach 60!

Thursday will have fall weather for the first day of fall!
Thursday will have fall weather for the first day of fall!(WNEM)

Overnight lows will even be colder in the 40s and even some 30s possible!

Take a look at where temperatures head into the weekend in your full 7-Day Forecast!