Climate expert explains impact of fire smoke on potential rainfall

MID-MICHIGAN (WNEM) – It has been about a month since Michigan has seen significant rainfall, and experts say smoke rising from recent wildfires could have an impact on potential rainfall.

“It’s a situation where we’re seeing particularly dry weather, and we’re trying to get some clouds to form to provide some rain showers and things like that. It could have enough of an effect that maybe reduces that possibility for that isolated rain shower,” said Dr. Frank Marsik, a climate expert at the University of Michigan.

As smoke creates hazy skies over mid-Michigan from the Wilderness Trail fire in Grayling, the need for substantial rainfall grows more apparent.

Related: Recreational areas, roads to reopen following Grayling wildfire

However, according to Marsik, the smoke from the wildfire could impact how much rain we could see.

“When you have wildfires, there’s been research that has suggested that that could actually suppress rainfall because of that effect; it just makes for a lot of really small cloud droplets instead of letting them get large enough to actually fall,” Marsik said.

In 2018, scientists with Northwest Research Associates found that smoke particles created denser clouds with five times as many water droplets than clouds not influenced by smoke.

However, more droplets doesn’t necessarily mean more rain.

“If you put a lot of small particles into the atmosphere, that makes for smaller cloud droplets and it makes it harder for them to efficiently grow into the size of rain droplets and fall,” Marsik said.

That kind of impact will not help the state’s current fire danger rating of very high and extreme.

“What it ultimately means is, as the risk elevates, the opportunity for ignition increases, and the rate of spread of that wildfire once ignited can really become quite rapid,” said Patrick Ertel, a public information officer with the Michigan DNR.

Ertel said the state’s current condition is more typical for late August.

“We haven’t had a thorough greenup whereas in the end of August, you know, we would have already had all of the vegetation growing,” he said. “So, we really are in unprecedented times for seeing these values for fire risk at this time of year.”

Until we get the rain that is needed, Ertel said it is up to everyone to help prevent wildfires so we don’t add more particles to the atmosphere.

“It really takes the collective vigilance of all of us to protect each other,” Ertel said.

Marsik also said that the smoke from the fire could block solar radiation from hitting the Earth’s surface, which in turn reduces the amount of moisture that goes into the atmosphere.

Read next:

Recreational areas, roads to reopen following Grayling wildfire

Iron Mountain man receives maximum sentence for sexual assault of child caught on ‘nanny’ camera

New mid-Michigan psychiatric hospital completed

Excitement building for Dow Great Lakes Bay Invitational

Subscribe to the TV5 newsletter and receive the latest local news and weather straight to your email every day.

Copyright 2023 WNEM. All rights reserved.