Will summer make one last stand in Michigan?

SAGINAW, Mich. (WNEM) - With pumpkin spice showing up everywhere and October-like temperatures this week, you are probably wondering if it is time to close the pool or pull the boat out of the water. Lately, the forecast has had more of an autumn feel and people wondering about fall color. However, those fall vibes might hit the brakes. Summer could have one last stand to make in Michigan.

Temperatures in our 7 Day forecast are up and down and shows that the grip summer has had on the forecast is not as strong as it was the last few months. September is a month of transition between seasons with it starting with an average high of 77 degrees but slipping to an average of 68 degrees at the end of the month.

Looking at the forecast going forward, summer is not done. The atmospheric flow shows the opportunity for warm air from the south and west to flow into the Great Lake region. Towards the middle of next week, trends are showing temperatures getting back to September normal. Looking at the 6-10 temperatures outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows temperatures to be above average come mid to late September. This map signals that temperatures will be above average.

It is important to note that the average temperature is decreasing. The expectation is that highs will be above 70 degrees in that timeframe, which looks likely with mid 70s expected. Even CPC’s 8-14 Day temperature outlook keeps the warm trend.

Weather data is showing temperatures to be back into the 70s come the next two weeks, and it is possible that 80s could still be on the table. Though September rallies with a mild finish, that atmospheric pattern starts to change come October. The average high at the start of October is 67 degrees. If above average conditions continue highs would be near the low to mid 70s. Keep in mind that daylight amounts in October continue to decrease and limit the heating factor for afternoon high temperatures.

One factor to consider is the activity in the tropics and any disturbances that can strengthen to hurricane status. Tropical systems are large and can influence the atmospheric flow in directions, but also could slow down the flow. Depending how the flow is influences can bring spells of cool or mild conditions for varying lengths of time. The tropics will be something to watch for the next month and a half.

Make sure to stay ahead of the temperature swings in mid-Michigan with the TV5 First Alert Weather app. Plus, monitor the cool nights and it’s affect on fall foliage. The fall colors will be here soon, and the TV5 First Alert Weather team has released their forecast for peak color.

Copyright 2023 WNEM. All rights reserved.