Photo via National Weather Service (NWS).
To say we've haven't been experiencing a Pure-Michigan forecast over the past week would be a lie. We've seen rain, heavy snow, and went from below zero temperatures to tying record high temperatures back in the 50s.
Now our next threat of wintry weather is not one to take lightly; freezing rain will look to present itself along with a mix of sleet and snow for overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
The newest data suggests the best chance to see the freezing rain will look to stay from the Tri-Cities and points south. Precipitation types look to stay mainly snow farther north. Nonetheless, mixed precipitation will be possible to mix in with with freezing rain for all of Mid-Michigan.
Here are some of the latest data products we're taking into consideration for the forecast.
This image represents the probability of seeing a tenth (.10) of ice from 7 PM Tuesday until 7 PM Wednesday. This is showing higher than a 50% chance south of the Tri-Cities. Photo via Weather Prediction Center (WPC).
This image shows a representation of hourly freezing rain accumulation from several different models for Flint; the North American model (NAM) and the Global Forecast System for the United States (GFS). We see here from WED 6Z (Wednesday at 1 AM) out until THU 0Z (Wednesday at 7 PM) an average of around .30 inches of ice accumulating. Photo via meteor.iastate.edu
Seeing the variance in the different models, this is why it's important to consider as many parameters before making a concrete forecast. Considering air temperatures sounding profiles to observe upper air temperatures along with available moisture, we need to be prepared for some potential significant icing to occur.
This is what we're thinking right now for ice accumulation. Higher amounts the farther south you go. Watch out for icy roads for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Like always, we'll continue to monitor this over the next day and make adjustments to the forecast as needed.