It's hard to believe 18 days have already passed since Thanksgiving. If you've been in a daze with the hustle and bustle of the holiday season, you may not realize we're just shy of two weeks until Christmas.
Of course as we get closer to the big day, we start to get into crunch time when it comes to our chances for a white Christmas.
While Saginaw and Flint blew away there November snowfall averages, both checking in at 8.5" above average, we've started to see a lot of that whittle away.
Before we get to our historical odds of a white Christmas, it's important to know what is considered a white Christmas when we're looking at things climatologically. According to NOAA, a white Christmas is defined as at least 1" of snow on the ground.
Below is a map produced by NOAA, which shows our historical odds of having 1" of snow on the ground for Christmas Day.
In the TV5 viewing area, odds range from about 40-75%, with the highest odds in Clare, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties. At MBS Airport, chances are around 48%, with 52% at Flint Bishop. In Bad Axe, the probability is 62%.
So what does this year look like? It's still too early to say with just over two weeks to go. However, the Climate Prediction Center's long term temperature outlook for days 8-14 (December 17th-23rd) shows we have a 60% chance for above-normal temperatures.
Does this temperature outlook suggest we'll be basking in the 50s? No. But it does suggest we have a chance to be warmer than our normal highs through that period, which are in the lower and middle 30s.
Of course, we can still have snow if temperatures don't stray too far above average. But we may have our work cut out for us if that trend holds.
The good news as we get closer? All it takes is one system to pass through just before the holiday.
The bad news? We're running out of time and accumulating snow chances don't look great through the upcoming weekend.
We'll be sure to keep you updated as we get closer. Stay tuned!